Gevo Lifts 2026 Adjusted EBITDA Outlook After Record Quarter

The Tip Desk · November 10, 2026 · 3 min read

Third-quarter revenue hit a record $83 million, including about $29.4 million of Canadian CFR credits, as the company raised its 2026 Adjusted EBITDA target to greater than $90 million.

Gevo, Inc. (GEVO) reported record third-quarter revenue of $83 million, nearly double the $43 million recorded a year earlier, and swung to net income attributable to Gevo of $23 million, or $0.09 a share on a diluted basis, from a net loss attributable to Gevo of $8 million.

The renewable-fuels and carbon-management company said the quarter marked its strongest financial performance to date, with record revenue, net income, Adjusted EBITDA and cash flow from operations. Gross profit was $48 million, compared with $13 million in the same quarter last year. Non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA was $44 million, versus $7 million a year earlier. Cash flow from operations was $41 million, and the company ended the quarter with $68 million in cash and cash equivalents.

About $29.4 million of the quarter’s revenue came from sales of Canadian Clean Fuel Regulation credits, the majority of which had been generated in 2025 and the first half of 2026. Sequential revenue rose from $47 million in the second quarter, when the company said results were affected by April planned maintenance and did not include the newly approved Canada CFR pathway.

Gevo now expects full-year 2026 non-GAAP Adjusted EBITDA to be greater than $90 million, up from the greater-than-$60 million target it set after the second quarter, and said it expects 2027 Adjusted EBITDA greater than $70 million. The company said the improved outlook is supported by about $20 million of non-recurring revenue from banked CFR credits recognized in the third quarter and more than $10 million of additional annual 45Z value from renewable natural gas after GREET-model improvements that provide greater recognition for avoided methane emissions from dairy manure, based on current estimates and subject to third-party validation.

As announced in October, Gevo expects its carbon business to generate more than $50 million of revenue in 2026. Chief Executive Officer Paul Bloom said the company had built a carbon business that stands on its own, selling into both compliance and voluntary markets.

In October, Gevo contracted sales of $70 million of Section 45Z tax credits, representing substantially all of its expected credits from ethanol and RNG production for 2026. The company said those sales are expected to grow further in 2027 as a result of increased production from its debottlenecking project.

Low-carbon ethanol production was 19 million gallons in the third quarter, compared with 17 million gallons a year earlier, primarily due to the timing of scheduled maintenance, which was completed before the third quarter this year but during the third quarter last year. RNG production was 91,729 MMBtu, versus 92,396 MMBtu a year earlier.

The company said it is nearing completion of a debottlenecking project at Gevo North Dakota, expected to increase low-carbon ethanol production to a nameplate capacity of approximately 75 million gallons per year, plus associated coproducts, carbon capture and incentives, with completion still targeted for year-end 2026. It also said it made progress securing financing for an expansion that would approximately double low-carbon ethanol production and carbon capture starting in 2028, and secured long-lead capital equipment in the third quarter.

Gevo continues its path of securing fixed or floor-price commercial offtake agreements for sustainable aviation fuel to enable Project Northstar, a long-term initiative to convert a portion of ethanol production into SAF.