Earnings

Tariffs and Middle East conflict lift inflation risk

The Tip Desk · November 9, 2026 · 2 min read

Dauch (DCH) lifted its 2026 tariff-earnings hit and three regional banks tied credit and deposit risk to energy, tariffs and Middle East conflict.

Dauch (DCH) raised its expected full-year 2026 tariff impact on earnings, after mitigation and estimated customer recoveries, to approximately $20 million to $25 million from a prior range of approximately $10 million to $20 million. The company said geopolitical conflicts, including instability in the Middle East, had already impacted operations and financial results, primarily through supply chain disruptions in the first nine months of 2026, and that it expects those challenges to continue in 2026. It also said it may not be successful in mitigating cost increases from supply chain constraints, either through recovery from customers or otherwise, and that the ultimate impact on net sales, results of operations, and cash flows is unknown.

California BanCorp (BCAL) said inflation remains above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, with uncertainty driven by elevated energy prices, tariffs, geopolitical developments, and other supply-related pressures. The bank said ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East have increased energy price volatility and may contribute to inflationary pressures, interest rate uncertainty, and indirect credit risks. It said the Fed raised its 2026 inflation forecast to 2.7%, reflecting persistent price pressures tied to higher oil prices, tariffs, and geopolitical disruptions.

BCB Bancorp (BCBP) said the global impact of the United States military conflict with Iran, ongoing global tariffs, and higher inflation could cause increased loan delinquencies, decreased deposits, and reduced loan originations. Princeton Bancorp (BPRN) listed the global impact of foreign military conflicts in Iran, the Middle East, and elsewhere, including substantially higher fuel costs, among the most significant factors that could cause future results to differ from those anticipated.

Dauch’s higher tariff range sits against a still-open question about whether customer recoveries will offset supply-chain costs. The banks’ language is a risk map rather than a reported spending or demand decline: California BanCorp’s inflation and energy-volatility warnings, BCB Bancorp’s delinquency and origination channels, and Princeton Bancorp’s fuel-cost factor all point to the same geopolitical and tariff overlay on credit and deposits.